China, the world’s largest carbon polluter, faces mounting concerns over its ability to meet ambitious climate targets following the approval of numerous new coal plants, according to recent research.
In a bid to curb planet-heating pollution and peak carbon emissions by 2030, China has committed to tightly regulating new coal-fired generation capacity while simultaneously ramping up the integration of renewable energy sources like wind and solar into its grid infrastructure.
Coal Regulation and Renewable Integration
Analysis from the US-based Global Energy Monitor (GEM) and the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) has highlighted that a surge in electricity shortages in 2021 led to a significant increase in coal power permits, potentially impeding the nation’s transition to cleaner energy sources.
Over the span of just two years, China has greenlit a staggering 218 gigawatts (GW) of new coal power capacity, equivalent to the entire electricity supply of Brazil.
In 2023 alone, China approved 114 GW of coal power capacity, marking a 10% increase from the previous year. Construction commenced on 70 GW of new coal plants, up from 54 GW, with an additional 47 GW coming online, compared to 28 GW in 2022, according to the analysis.
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Navigating China’s Grid Infrastructure and Carbon Emissions
The report underscores the urgent need for “drastic action” to achieve carbon and energy intensity goals by 2025. China also faces challenges in meeting its target to boost the share of non-fossil fuels in its energy mix to 20% by 2025.
While China’s total power capacity surpasses current demand, inefficiencies in its grid infrastructure hinder effective electricity distribution, particularly across provincial borders, driving further coal plant construction.
Despite these concerns, projections suggest a potential decline in China’s carbon emissions this year, as utilization rates at coal plants are expected to decrease with the expansion of clean energy integration.
However, this poses financial risks for coal power operators and could trigger resistance to the ongoing energy transition, warns Lauri Myllyvirta, CREA’s chief analyst. Resolving this contradiction is crucial for China to achieve the necessary emission reductions and stay on course for carbon neutrality.
As China grapples with balancing energy demands, climate commitments, and economic imperatives, the trajectory of its energy transition will remain a focal point for global efforts to combat climate change.
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