Leaked documents obtained by the German newspaper Bild have raised concerns about potential Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plans to expand his country’s involvement in Ukraine and possibly target NATO allies in the coming year.
The classified military information, allegedly from the German Ministry of Defense, outlines a scenario where Russia may engage in a “hybrid” attack in Eastern Europe.
Mobilization Plans and Spring Offensive Fears
According to Bild, one alarming scenario, known as ‘Alliance Defense 2025,’ envisions Russia mobilizing an additional 200,000 soldiers starting in February.
This plan suggests that, with Western financial support for Ukraine diminishing, Russia could launch a massive “spring offensive” against Baltic states by July, employing severe cyberattacks and stoking discontent among Russian nationals in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
By September, the leaked documents propose that Russia might use these clashes as a pretext for a large-scale military exercise named “Zapad 2024,” involving around 50,000 Russian soldiers in western Russia and Belarus.
The scenario suggests that Russia could then move troops and mid-range missiles to Kaliningrad, a Russian territory situated between Lithuania and Poland, potentially alarming NATO members.
The documents detail a plan where Russia could inundate the region with propaganda, warning of an imminent NATO attack, ultimately aiming to conquer the Suwalki Gap—a narrow Polish-Lithuanian corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad.
In a worst-case scenario exercise, by December, Russia could exploit the transition period following the US presidential election.
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Russia Propaganda Plot: Potential Provocations and Military Presence in 2025
The leaked documents suggest Russia might use propaganda to incite violence in the Suwalki Gap area, falsely accusing Western allies of plotting against Putin’s regime. This could lead to a deployment of German troops for defense and a substantial Russian military presence in Belarus by March 2025.
While Putin and Russian officials have consistently denied plans to escalate the conflict beyond Ukraine’s borders, European allies are reportedly taking the potential threat seriously.
Last week, Sweden’s Civil Defense Minister and military commander-in-chief expressed concerns about the possibility of war in Sweden, emphasizing the need for comprehensive preparations at all levels of society.
Although German Defense Ministry officials did not address specific scenarios in the leaked documents, they acknowledged that considering various scenarios, even if unlikely, is a routine part of military preparation and training.
The revelations underscore the heightened tensions and anxieties surrounding Russia’s intentions in the region, prompting European nations to stay vigilant and prepared for potential security challenges.
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