A recent New York Times/Siena College poll released on Tuesday has sparked discussions among Democrats, highlighting both the worrisome and reassuring aspects of President Joe Biden’s standing as the 2024 election looms.
The mixed findings have Democrats grappling with the reality of Biden’s low approval ratings and his narrow trail behind former President Donald Trump, while also considering the extended timeframe until the election.
Young Voters Signal Concerns
The poll exposes notable concerns for Democrats, with President Biden facing a significant 58% disapproval rating. Among voters aged 18 to 29, nearly three-quarters disapprove of Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict, and 49% express a preference for Trump over Biden’s 43%.
These figures, particularly the overall disapproval rating, pose challenges for an incumbent president seeking re-election.
The factors contributing to Biden’s struggles include the contentious US exit from Afghanistan, ongoing frustration over high grocery prices, and questions about Biden’s advanced age, all of which compound the difficulties of securing another term.
However, the underlying issue might extend beyond specific policy concerns. Voters appear reluctant to envision a Trump-Biden rematch, and the prevailing sentiment is a form of grief over reliving the 2020 election with the added challenges of fewer COVID-19 masks and higher prices.
President Biden’s 2020 coalition was diverse, including traditional Democratic voters, dissatisfied former Republicans, suburbanites, and college-educated city-dwellers who sought progressive alternatives in the primary.
The coalition, formed to defeat Trump, has been fragile, as Biden himself lacked a clear mandate beyond beating his predecessor.
The president’s progressive policies, such as student loan forgiveness, have drawn criticism from moderates, while discussions about police funding and support for Israel have frustrated progressives.
This dilemma reflects the inherent challenges of a coalition formed primarily to oppose a common adversary.
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The current state of the electorate reveals a complex mix of denial, bargaining, and anger. Some voters are in denial, reluctant to accept a Trump-Biden rematch, while progressive voters, particularly those critical of Biden’s Israel policy, are navigating the bargaining or anger phase.
Acceptance may only come into play once Trump officially secures the Republican nomination.
While challenges and dissatisfaction among certain voter groups are genuine, the broader sentiment suggests that voters are expressing their current feelings about the race, with the potential for shifts as the political landscape evolves in the lead-up to the 2024 election.
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