In March, the White House reached out to approximately a dozen COVID-19 specialists who closely track the coronavirus’ evolution.
According to Dr. Eric Topol, founder, and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, the experts came up with a range of probabilities between 5% and 30% that was surprisingly narrow. After providing his own estimate of 15% to 20%, he said he was provided with the data via telephone.
Expert Predictions On COVID-19 Variants
The majority of those polled estimated the odds to be between 10 and 20 percent.
Dr. Dan Barouch, director of the Center for Virology and Vaccine Research at Boston’s Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, was one of these experts.
He was contacted by Dr. Ashish Jha, the COVID-19 response coordinator for the White House, for “just a casual phone conversation about my views on immunity and variants and the likelihood of new variants emerging.
First, Dr. Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, performed some very basic modeling based on the fact that the virus has undergone one Omicron-level mutation in roughly three and a half years of transmission.
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Future Pandemic Preparation
The Omicron variant was first detected in the United States in November 2021. Taking this into account, he estimated that the likelihood of a similar event occurring within the next two years would increase by approximately 40 percent between today and May 4, 2025.
The calls to experts were made as the Biden administration prepared for the end of the COVID-19 public health emergency, scheduled for Thursday.
Friday’s Washington Post was the first to report the White House’s efforts to collect these expert estimates.
The end of the emergency in the United States will result in a number of modifications to how the government monitors the pandemic, with data collection becoming less frequent and less granular in most cases.
The government will no longer require labs to submit testing data. States will also no longer be required to report incidents.
According to Topol, he is also concerned about recent congressional efforts to reclaim funds that have been dedicated to coronavirus response, which some estimate could be as high as $50 billion.
Topol states that the need for the next generation of COVID-19 vaccines is greater than ever in order to protect against an Omicron-level event.
OPPR will collaborate with HHS and other agencies on ongoing response efforts, including preparation for future surges, and will serve as the Executive Office of the President’s lead division for future pandemic preparation.
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