Liz Cheney has lowered her visibility on a national level, which she claims were in response to the behaviour of former President Donald Trump on January 6.
The Wyoming Republican is one of only two Republicans serving on the House Jan. 6 committee, of which she is the vice chair, and she has been one of the most eloquent voices pointing the finger of blame squarely at Trump for the uprising.
But on Tuesday, Cheney will have to face voters in her home state of Wyoming, who will decide whether or not they want to send her back to Congress and determine her fate.
And it appears that she is in quite a bit of difficulty.
Cheney has been trying to appeal to Democrats, pushing them to switch parties and vote for her, and even citing the late Democratic President John F. Kennedy in a fundraising email. This is an effort to compensate for the disadvantage that this presents to her campaign.
On the surface, this looks like a fantastic idea, but in reality, it is probably doomed to fail. There are just not enough Democrats in Wyoming, which is the only state in the country that voted for Trump in the presidential election of 2020 by a larger margin than any other state in the country.
However, among Republicans, her favorability dropped to a meagre 13%.
Looking at the results of previous surveys reveals a consistent pattern. For instance, a Quinnipiac survey found that her popularity rating among Republicans was only 17%.
According to the results of a survey conducted in Wyoming, 72% of respondents disapproved of Cheney.
That is not good news for a candidate who is attempting to win an increasingly difficult primary.
To put it another way, even if Cheney were to win the votes of every single voter in Wyoming who is not a Republican, she would still lose the election by almost 50 points, with the final score being 73% to 27% if she did not gain any Republican votes.
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There is no question that Cheney will be successful in gaining the support of some Republicans, but this is a very steep hill to climb.
All of this speaks to the possibility that Cheney will have a difficult night, and if she does lose, only two of the ten House Republicans who voted for Trump’s impeachment on January 6 as a result of his behaviour will have won their primary.
Because he represents a district that President Joe Biden carried by a double-digit margin in the last election, one of these Republicans, David Valadao of California, is considered to be one of the most vulnerable in the entire country.
This implies that when the 116th Congress begins its work, there will probably be only one Republican Trump impeacher still in office, and his name is Dan Newhouse, who represents Washington.
