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How Technology Can Prevent a Recession

We experienced severe inflation, rising interest rates, and a flight from stocks in 1980 and 1990. Then came a stunning rebound. How can we recreate those eras today?

Then, new technology plateaus and the availability of early-stage investment for them were the main sources of success.

Computers were essentially enormous machines at the start of the 1980s. People were still typing at home and at work, and dictating if there had a secretary, neither of which was very productive.

The Whitneys and a rare financial institution like Citibank were the originators of venture financing for start-up businesses.

However, the Labor Department sent a note to trustees of employee pension funds in 1980. In addition to being allowed to participate in private enterprises, it was also urged that 15% of the billions of dollars in pension funds be invested in private rather than public companies.

Thus, “alternative investments” like real estate trusts as well as venture capital funds that might invest in businesses creating smaller personal computers and other new technologies have grown in popularity.

Typewriters, Wite-Out, and secretaries who took dictation are no more.

A tax adjustment and a reduction in the Federal Reserve’s money supply at the end of the 1980s dealt a blow to real estate investing in this quickly developing economy.

The internet and cell phones, two tremendous productivity boosters, reached another technological pinnacle in the early 1990s, which was good news.

Before too much money was invested in start-ups that collapsed and took the publicly listed companies and their underwriters with them, the 1990s were a resounding success.

IRS

I received an invitation to join Senator John Kerry’s roundtable discussion on how to finance startup companies in 2003.

The Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee was led by him. As it would benefit investors more than capital gains, I suggested to Congress that the IRS code raise the amount of losses in small enterprises that investors might deduct from their earned income.

Additionally, I argued that we still require small and medium-sized investment enterprises that go public.

The Sarbanes-Oxley Act’s tighter reporting standards for public firms were passed in 2002, which increased investor confidence.

Now that SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Corporations) are as transparent as a typical public offering, the SEC is filling in that missing piece of the recovery puzzle. But will new safeguards be offered for cryptocurrencies, which we urgently need?

New technologies, such as “the Cloud,” were introduced in the first decade of this century, and everything seemed to be going smoothly until the subprime mortgage market collapsed in 2008, taking early-stage investing and the economy with it.

For early investors to be able to sell their shares and reinvest their earnings, public markets must inspire confidence.

Only four businesses have gone public as of 2022, which is similar to the year 1979 when there was not a single IPO.

Today, there are other space explorers besides simply Elon Musk, therefore there is no such thing as a technological plateau. Zuckerberg has his Meta ambitions.

All eighteen patients with fourth-stage rectal cancer who were being treated at Memorial Sloan Kettering with a GlaxoSmithKline immunotherapy medication were recently cured. One of the many small businesses pursuing nuclear fusion this month announced coming closer to completion—goodbye energy issues.

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Such developments have me ecstatic, and I now rest my case that a recession is not inescapable.

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