According to a think group, in the case of a Chinese invasion, Washington is prepared for the incorrect kind of conflict in Taiwan. Although it has been prepared for a brief battle, preparation should ideally centre on “a confrontation of extended length.”
The American Enterprise Institute argues that Washington incorrectly expects a “brief and geographically localised battle” over Taiwan in its recently published book, “Defending Taiwan.”
In their essay, “Getting Ready for a Long War: Why a US-China Fight in the Western Pacific Won’t End Quickly,” the academics state that doing so would entail surviving an initial missile barrage, containing a Chinese invasion, and ultimately compelling Beijing to compromise.
Beijing also declared that it would “fight to the very end” to thwart Taiwanese independence and warned that any efforts by foreign countries to meddle in Taiwan would be “doomed to fail” at the same time the remarks were made.
In Tokyo late last month, President Biden underlined the willingness of the United States to use force to defend Taiwan against an impending invasion by China.
Hal Brands and Michael Beckley, senior fellows, told VOA that Pentagon strategy should centre on “a conflict of extended length.”
“In the most alarming scenario, Beijing would unleash a surprise missile attack, striking not only Taiwan’s defences but also the American naval and air assets concentrated at a few big sites in the western Pacific,” the duo continues.
The remarks were made at the same time that Beijing vowed to “fight to the very end” to prevent Taiwanese independence and warned that any attempts by foreign nations to meddle in Taiwan are “doomed to fail.”
President Biden had reaffirmed the willingness of the United States to use force to defend Taiwan against a future invasion by China in Tokyo late last month.
China is allegedly making the same error, according to Brands and Beckley, whose authors believe that Chinese leaders “seem to anticipate fast, debilitating strikes that destroy Taiwanese opposition and provide the U.S. with a fait accompli.”
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Both sides would prefer a lovely little war in the western Pacific, but they won’t get that kind of conflict, they add.
The war would last a long time because both nations stand to lose a great deal and have the capacity to take casualties. “Beijing wouldn’t simply give up,” they write if the U.S. is successful in repelling a Chinese attack on Taiwan.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping’s declarations that the Taiwan problem must be addressed within this generation and that reunification are essential for “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese country” demonstrate Beijing’s resolve.”
It may cost Xi his authority and “possibly even his life,” the researchers write, if he would concede defeat, according to Brands and Beckley’s claims.
Regarding the United States, there is still domestic fury over “a Pearl Harbor-style missile attack” and the harm it does to the capital’s prestige as justification for continuing the conflict.
