In an unexpected turn of events, a recent poll reveals that former President Donald Trump is consolidating his hold on the Republican presidential field, leaving his primary opponent, Ron DeSantis, scrambling to adapt to the shifting political landscape.
Despite facing an astonishing 91 felony indictments, Trump’s support among Republican primary voters has increased by 11 percentage points since April to 59 percent.
Former President Gains Ground as DeSantis Struggles in the GOP Race
The increase in Trump’s support has prompted other GOP candidates to reevaluate their strategies, with some even contemplating direct challenges to the former president. This move was previously avoided to avoid alienating the Republican base.
To slow Trump’s momentum, candidates are anticipated to intensify their campaigning in key early-voting states such as New Hampshire and Iowa.
The potential legal challenges to Trump’s candidacy under the US 14th Amendment, which disqualifies anyone who has “engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the United States” from seeking public office, are also the subject of increasing speculation.
While the legal battle lingers, most of Trump’s supporters dismiss the four criminal cases against him as meritless, with roughly half claiming that these cases have strengthened their support for the former president.
The Wall Street Journal poll indicates that Trump’s lead over Ron DeSantis has nearly doubled to 46%.
Formerly viewed as the most viable alternative to Trump, DeSantis has seen his support plummet from 24 percent in April to 13 percent, placing him only five points clear of former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley.
The emergence of tech entrepreneur and political novice Vivek Ramaswamy has complicated the DeSantis campaign further.
Ramaswamy poses a significant threat to DeSantis’ position as the primary alternative to Trump, prompting DeSantis’ supporters to scour Ramaswamy’s past for damaging information.
Ramaswamy, who has been one of Trump’s most ardent supporters among Republican candidates, has begun to distance himself from the former president by questioning his conduct on January 6, 2022.
Polls indicate that more voters in states like Iowa and New Hampshire are open to contemplating alternative candidates, representing the last glimmer of hope for Trump’s opponents.
Even though Trump leads the field in Iowa with 42 percent, 72 percent of caucus-goers support other candidates or are open to the idea of doing so.
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Narrowing the Gap: Trump’s Support in Early States Offers Hope for Challengers
Internal polling by an unnamed rival candidate indicates that Trump’s unwavering support fluctuates between 28 and 33 percent, suggesting that there is room for others to make headway.
The data does reveal a few shining spots. Trump polls at least 10 points lower in the early states than he does nationally, according to Chris Sununu, the Republican governor of New Hampshire and a Trump critic.
There is still a substantial amount of work to complete, but ample time exists.
Chris Galdieri, a professor of politics at Saint Anselm College in New Hampshire, emphasizes the significance of outmaneuvering Trump through intensive grassroots efforts, especially in states like Iowa and New Hampshire where Trump’s support may be less unshakeable.
Trump’s opponents are also investigating legal avenues to challenge his candidacy, citing the opinion of conservative legal scholars William Baude and Michael Stokes Paulsen that he may be disqualified from running under the 14th Amendment.
As the 2024 presidential election unfolds, this constitutional provision has been the subject of legal challenges, and several secretaries of state are reportedly discussing its implications in private.
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