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$5.6 Billion Kicker Sets Stage for Oregon’s Economic Forecast: Median Taxpayer to Get $1,000

The average Oregon taxpayer will receive over $1,000 in tax refunds next year as state tax income continues to exceed projections, state economists told legislators Wednesday.

The state of Oregon’s newest quarterly economic estimate, revealed on Wednesday, tells a familiar story: tax collections and earnings are higher compared to prior to the COVID pandemic, and inflation remains high, despite slowing in recent months. 

Kicker Rebates in Oregon

In addition, the state is on track to pay out a record-breaking $5.6 billion through the one-of-a-kind “kicker” rebate, which kicks in when revenue collected exceeds official predictions. 

When Oregonians file their 2023 tax returns the following spring, they will get money back, and higher-income Oregonians who pay more in taxes might get more money back.

The kicker is that experts expect the top 1% of earnings will take home $44,600, with adjusted gross incomes exceeding $466,700. 

The average taxpayer, earning between $35,000 and $40,000, will receive approximately $980 back. The average taxpayer earning less than $70,000 would receive a $2,100 rebate. 

The bottom 20% of taxpayers, who earn less than $11,400 per year, would receive only $60. 

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Approved State Budget for Two Years 

$5.6-Billion-Kicker-Sets-Stage-For-Oregon's-Economic-Forecast-Median-Taxpayer-To-Get-$1,000
The average Oregon taxpayer will receive over $1,000 in tax refunds next year as state tax income continues to exceed projections, state economists told legislators Wednesday.

Along with returning more funds to taxpayers, lawmakers will have additional funds to devote to state services and initiatives. 

They previously authorized a $31.9 billion state budget for the subsequent two years, but they can add more money during the brief parliamentary session that begins in February. 

General fund resources have increased by $437 million, owing primarily to higher-than-expected company tax filings.

Lawmakers from both parties, as well as Gov. Tina Kotek, hailed the prognosis and immediately advocated for the funds to be spent on priorities like housing and infrastructure. 

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