Before his New York criminal trial ever starts, former President Donald Trump could already be the front-runner for the GOP nomination.
Judge Juan Merchan of the Manhattan Supreme Court set the trial date for Donald Trump’s alleged use of hush money to quiet adult film star Stormy Daniels as March 25 on Tuesday.
Donald Trump Potential GOP Nomination Before New York Trial
Trump is thus spared from having to balance his trial with last-minute campaigning ahead of the first-in-the-nation Iowa GOP caucuses because to Merchan’s choice.
So, before his opponents could even take advantage of the response to his trial, Trump may be able to gather enough delegates to create a potentially unstoppable lead.
It also creates the historically unprecedented possibility that the presumed nominee of one of the two biggest political parties in America may receive a prison term prior to the general election.
The hush-money trial will most likely take place once all four early states have cast their ballots.
States with a lot of delegates, like Texas and California, will hold their primaries on March 5 for Super Tuesday, even though other states haven’t set precise dates yet.
Republicans will have cast their ballots just ten days before the trial date in Florida and Ohio.
Republican primaries are significantly more common than Democratic ones to use winner-take-most voting procedures.
Trump mercilessly exploited these laws in 2016, as Elaine Kamarck of Brookings demonstrated.
Josh Putnam, a specialist in calendar maneuvers and nomination rules, has proposed that, if state parties reject any additional modifications, the former president might even profit from the advancements his reelection campaign achieved in the 2020 delegate rules.
Potentially Shaping Presidential Race Dynamics
By focusing on winner-take-all and winner-take-most rules, Trump backers, who have influence over the Republican National Committee in crucial states, have attempted to change the rules in favor of a Trump campaign.
Trump’s legal woes reveal a busy schedule that could overshadow the election and divert his attention at crucial times.
It might also be challenging for his competitors, who, as Seth Masket and Julia Azari wrote for MSNBC, may need to consider staying in the race as a last resort.
Republicans lack a super delegate Trump card in the event of an unusual circumstance.
Any convention may theoretically turn into an all-out brawl, but that hasn’t happened in years.
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