Nancy Pelosi hasn’t said whether she’s travelling to Taiwan, but if she does, she’ll be entering one of the most hotly debated regions of the globe.
Although American officials claim to have little concern that Beijing will attack the U.S. House speaker’s plane, they are aware that a mishap, blunder, or misunderstanding could endanger her safety. The Pentagon is therefore creating plans for any eventuality.
The military would increase the movement of its forces and assets in the Indo-Pacific region, officials told The Associated Press, if Pelosi travelled to Taiwan, which is still uncertain.
They opted not to go into further detail, but they did say that fighter jets, ships, surveillance equipment, and other military systems would probably be employed to provide overlapping rings of protection for her flight to Taiwan and any time she spent there.
Senior American leader needs extra security whenever they travel abroad. However, officials said this week that Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan — she would be the highest-ranking U.S. elected official to visit Taiwan since 1997 — would go above and beyond the standard security measures for journeys to less dangerous locations.
U.S. Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on Wednesday that discussing any specific travel is premature and declined to comment on military preparations to protect Pelosi, a Democrat from California, in the event of a visit.
He continued, “But if it’s decided that Speaker Pelosi or anyone else is going to travel and they asked for military support, we will take whatever steps are necessary to ensure the safe conduct of their visit. I’ll stop there and conclude.
Since her predecessor as speaker, Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., visited the close ally there 25 years ago, Pelosi would be the highest-ranking American lawmaker to do so.
China has mentioned the possibility of annexing Taiwan by force because it views it as its own territory. Even though it recognizes Beijing as the government of China, the U.S. continues to have informal relations and defence ties with Taiwan.
The trip is being considered as China intensifies what the United States and its allies in the Pacific describe as dangerous one-on-one confrontations with other militaries to assert its extensive territorial claims.
Among the incidents were dangerously close fly-bys that required other pilots to swerve to avoid collisions, as well as harassment or obstruction of air and ship crews, including the use of water cannons and lasers that cause blindness.
At a South China Sea forum hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies on Tuesday, U.S. assistant defence secretary Ely Ratner stated that there have been dozens of such manoeuvres this year alone. China disputes the occurrences.
The American officials discussed the requirement for establishing buffer zones around the speaker and her aircraft while speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss delicate security matters.
Any additional security could be handled to a large extent by the U.S.’s extensive forces already deployed throughout the region.
The military would also need to be ready for any incident, including an accident that could happen on the ground or in the air.
They suggested that the U.S. might need to have rescue equipment nearby, such as helicopters on ships that are already in the region.
Although she had not officially confirmed the trip, the White House on Monday chose not to comment. However, President Joe Biden expressed concerns about it to reporters last week, saying that the military believes her trip is “not a good idea right now.”
The first phone call between Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping in four months may be affected by a Pelosi trip on Thursday.
Before the official announcement, a U.S. official who spoke to The Associated Press on the condition of anonymity confirmed the call’s plans.
American officials have stated that they don’t believe China would directly target Pelosi or attempt to sabotage the visit.
But if the trip happens, they don’t completely rule out the possibility that China will increase its provocative military aircraft overflights in or close to Taiwanese airspace and naval patrols in the Taiwan Strait.
Additionally, they do not rule out Chinese actions elsewhere in the region as a sign of power.
The biggest danger to Pelosi’s trip, according to Mark Cozad, acting associate director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the Rand Corporation, is a Chinese display of force “gone awry, or some type of accident that results from a demonstration of provocative action.”
So, an air collision could be the cause. Again, when you do those kinds of things, you know, there is always a chance that something could go wrong. It might be some sort of missile test.
Barry Pavel, director of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council, laughed at reports that warplanes and aircraft carriers were being considered by American officials to ensure the speaker’s safety.
“The White House obviously doesn’t want the speaker to leave, and I believe that’s why you’re getting some of these suggestions,” the speaker said.
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Pavel remarked, “She’s not going with an armada.”
Additionally, they claimed that increasing American military presence to protect Pelosi might cause tensions to rise.
It is very possible that the message we intend to send instead of the one we actually send when trying to deter someone, according to Cozad. “And so you enter into… a kind of escalating spiral, where our efforts to deter are actually perceived as increasingly provocative and vice versa. And that dynamic can be extremely hazardous.
